Backtest: Buy SHEL at the close when its daily news-sentiment score is in the top quint...
A 100% win rate sounds like a clean sweep — until the benchmark check arrives. This backtest bought SHEL at the close whenever daily news sentiment hit the top quintile while the stock's 10-day return sat in the bottom quintile, then exited after five trading days or a 3% stop. Three trades closed, all three green, for a 5.04% return on $100,000 starting capital. Over the same window, plain SPY buy-and-hold returned 68.30%, leaving the strategy 63.26 points in the dust.
The thesis was that a burst of bullish news on a washed-out supermajor marks negative momentum exhaustion, pulling buyers in before crude re-couples. On those three setups, the signal did exactly what it promised — just not enough of it. The perfect hit rate obscured a thinner edge than the narrative suggests.
With only three closed trades, the sample is thin and the gap to SPY is stark. The details, charts, and full methodology sit in the analysis below.
Buy SHEL at the close when its daily news-sentiment score is in the top quintile and its 10-day total return is in the bottom quintile; exit after 5 trading days or on a 3% stop-loss, whichever comes first. Bullish news flow on a washed-out supermajor marks negative momentum exhaustion and draws buyers before crude re-couples.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy SHEL at the close when its daily news-sentiment score is in the top quintile and its 10-day total return is in the bottom quintile; exit after 5 trading days or on a 3% stop-loss, whichever comes first. Bullish news flow on a washed-out supermajor marks negative momentum exhaustion and draws buyers before crude re-couples.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +5.04% on $100,000 starting capital across 3 closed trades with a 100% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +68.30%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 63.26 points. Best single trade +4.97%, worst +0.29%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.
- Only 3 closed trades in the window — a small sample.