Backtest: Buy HAL at the close when HAL falls more than 2% from the prior close while B...
The setup sounds almost too clean: oilfield services getting hit while crude itself closes higher—that is the classic footprint of forced de-grossing, not a broken thesis. Buy the dip, ride the snap-back once the tape settles. In theory.
The backtest tells a blunter story. Across 20 closed trades, this HAL mean-reversion strategy lost 9.09% on a $100,000 account, managing a 52.6% win rate but failing to overcome its losers. SPY buy-and-hold over the same window gained roughly 68%, leaving the strategy trailing the benchmark by more than 77 points.
The evidence below breaks down exactly where the edge broke: the size of the winners, the depth of the worst trades, and what the exit rule actually captured. The read is not flattering to the hypothesis.
Buy HAL at the close when HAL falls more than 2% from the prior close while Brent crude closes positive on the day; exit when HAL closes above its 10-day simple moving average or after 8 trading days, whichever comes first. A services selloff against a rising crude tape marks forced de-grossing rather than fundamental deterioration, and the stock tends to snap back once oilfield spending signals re-anchor.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy HAL at the close when HAL falls more than 2% from the prior close while Brent crude closes positive on the day; exit when HAL closes above its 10-day simple moving average or after 8 trading days, whichever comes first. A services selloff against a rising crude tape marks forced de-grossing rather than fundamental deterioration, and the stock tends to snap back once oilfield spending signals re-anchor.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -9.09% on $100,000 starting capital across 20 closed trades with a 53% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +68.30%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 77.40 points. Best single trade +5.79%, worst -9.94%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.