Backtest: When XOM closes down more than 2% on a day with positive news sentiment (scor...
A 56% win rate on 32 trades sounds like a working edge — until you measure it against simply holding the market. This backtest of XOM's positive-news selloffs returned 6.39% on $100,000, while SPY buy-and-hold gained 68.30% over the same window, a 61.91-point gap. The thesis — that dip-buyers pile into Exxon on good news and drive a quick rebound — largely failed to compound.
The strategy is mechanically simple: when XOM closes down over 2% on a day with positive news sentiment, buy at the close and exit after three trading days. The full breakdown below covers all 32 closed trades, the best (+5.09%) and worst (-10.79%) outcomes, and where the edge broke down.
The evidence is in the charts and trade-by-trade analysis that follow.
When XOM closes down more than 2% on a day with positive news sentiment (score > 0), buy at the close; exit after 3 trading days. Thesis: Dip-buyers rush in on positive-news selloffs, causing a rapid rebound.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: When XOM closes down more than 2% on a day with positive news sentiment (score > 0), buy at the close; exit after 3 trading days. Thesis: Dip-buyers rush in on positive-news selloffs, causing a rapid rebound.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +6.39% on $100,000 starting capital across 32 closed trades with a 56% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +68.30%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 61.91 points. Best single trade +5.09%, worst -10.79%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.