Backtest: Buy OXY at the close when Brent crude's 14-day RSI is below 40 and OXY's 14-d...
The setup sounds reasonable: buy OXY when the stock shows relative strength against a weak crude tape. The backtest, however, tells a harsher story. Across seven trades the strategy lost roughly 10% of its capital, and only two of the seven closed green.
The thesis was that stock-specific accumulation would carry OXY higher over the next week regardless of Brent's oversold condition. That edge did not materialize. With a 28.6% win rate and a worst trade of -5.62%, the long side failed repeatedly. Meanwhile SPY buy-and-hold gained over 68% in the same period.
The full evidence, including charts and trade-by-trade statistics, is in the analysis below.
Buy OXY at the close when Brent crude's 14-day RSI is below 40 and OXY's 14-day RSI is above 55; exit after 5 trading days. OXY's positive momentum against a weak crude tape shows stock-specific accumulation that tends to carry the shares higher over the next week.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy OXY at the close when Brent crude's 14-day RSI is below 40 and OXY's 14-day RSI is above 55; exit after 5 trading days. OXY's positive momentum against a weak crude tape shows stock-specific accumulation that tends to carry the shares higher over the next week.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -10.02% on $100,000 starting capital across 7 closed trades with a 29% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +68.30%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 78.32 points. Best single trade +2.85%, worst -5.62%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.
- Only 7 closed trades in the window — a small sample.